 I want to give you more insight into why some companies are a wonderful opportunity to hedge against inflation and provides you an opportunity to build a solid portfolio. In my search for truly wonderful businesses, I look for specific qualitative and quantitative factors. What define a great business to me is:
What is more as Warren Buffet refers is management’s decisions must be intelligent, and their interests must be business oriented, because management, ultimately, is the link between business value and shareholder value. Tela advisor strive to buy shares only in high quality companies which I believe can compound in value for many years to come. We believe that Tractor Supply is an excellent business, with high returns on invested capital, intelligent management, and strong growth potential. Tractor Supply has consistently grown store count, and revenues for over 20 years grown from $2.068B in 2005 to $12,29B in 2021.  Tractor Supply Company is an excellent business operating in a dominant position within the niche marketplace. Tractor Supply’s product selection is precisely targeted to its core-customer base, and the company knows its customers well. Sales per Business Growing sales by opening new stores is good but generating higher sales from existing stores is even more important for a retailer as it is an indication of the company’s ongoing relevance to consumers and competitive position.   We believe that Tractor Supply Company has excellent growth opportunities ahead. The company plans to open over 600 new Tractor Supply stores, as well as 800 new subsidiary pet supplies stores in the coming years. Finally, the company stands to continuously expand its customer base as more families migrate to the suburban markets which contain most of Tractor Supply’s nearly two thousand stores. Company Overview Tractor Supply Company (TSCO: NASDAQ) has a well-established dominance as a specialty store covering the broad needs of its mostly suburban and rural clientele. Products include farm, ranch, home, garden, pet, clothing, livestock, and equine needs along with, as the name suggests, tractor parts, accessories, and maintenance needs. “Everything but the tractor” as one analyst put it. TSCO thrives in a niche market of suburban, and rural areas where a competitor with a similar range of products, and who can compete on price is nowhere to be found. Tractor Supply benefits from repeat business from its most loyal customers as many of the items the company sells are consumables. Part of TSCO’s strategy for repeat business comes from its loyalty rewards program called “Neighbor's Club”. Neighbor's Club members account for 65% of TSCO’s total sales, and membership continues to grow. Retention rates are higher than 95% for club . members, and new millennial customers purchasing items such as pet food, chicken feed, and other products are joining the Neighbor's Club at a rate of 1 in 3 customers. As a national brand, Tractor Supply benefits from scale-based cost advantages in advertising and has developed a successful customer loyalty program, which helps drive repeat business. Repeat customers are extremely valuable to any business because they cost far less to acquire. Maintaining these customer relationships is an important task necessary to protect the company’s revenues. Tractor Supply’s Neighbor's Club helps maintain these important relationships by way of reward programs, and additional perks such as free utility trailer rentals for qualified customers. In order to maintain this competitive advantage, Tractor Supply is currently expanding product selection, and continuously adding perks via the Neighbor's Club. The Neighbor’s Club now has over 20 million members.  Performance measures such as sales per store, EBITDA per store, net income per store, and sales per square foot show a positive trend, with 2020 showing the strongest year yet. Sales per store have increased 38.8% from $3.6 million in 2010, to $5m in 2020. Similarly, sales per square foot have increased 46.2% from $225.89 in 2010 to $330.45 in 2020. EBITDA per store has nearly doubled from $336k in 2010 to $666k in 2020 and finally, net income per store has grown from $168k in 2010, to $356k in 2020, representing a 112% increase.  Capital Allocation Over the past 10 years Tractor Supply Company generated $6.2 billion in cash from operations. $2.3 billion was spent on capital expenditures and acquisitions over that same period.
 Hal Lawton (CEO) has focused on better monetizing TSCO’s omnichannel presence, which now accounts for 10% total sales in Q2 2021, as opposed to 2% at year-end 2019. Lawton has successfully allocated resources to help TSCO’s ecommerce sales grow by 5-fold. We expect online and in-app sales to continue to grow as a % of total sales as the younger, tech-savvy generations choose to shop at Tractor Supply more over the coming years. Conclusion We believe that Tractor Supply Company is a high-quality company. It earns outstanding returns on capital underpinned by economies of scale, has ample room for growth and its management has done an admirable job of capital allocation. Tractor Supply recently raised company guidance during the Q2 2021 earnings call. Current guidance from management states a range of $12.1 billion to $12.3 billion in revenues, with comparable store sales growth in the range of 11% to 13% for 2021. The company also expects share repurchases to range from $700 million to $800 million. The company is currently acquiring Orscheln Farm & Home, a retailer of farm and ranch supplies, which of course, is in line with Tractor Supply’s core business. The acquisition will lead to an addition of 167 Orscheln Farm & Home stores across 11 states, for a price of $297 million. Orscheln Farm & Home’s potential addition to TSCO’s income is not included in current guidance. 
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 BUSINESS Naspers Limited operates in consumer internet industry worldwide. The company builds various companies that empower people and enrich communities. It holds investments in classifieds,
Through Prosus the group invests and operates globally in markets with long-term growth potential, building leading consumer internet companies that empower people and enrich communities. Prosus has its primary listing on Euronext Amsterdam and a secondary listing on the JSE Limited’s stock exchange. It also has an American Depository Receipts (ADR) programmed trading on an over-the-counter basis in the United States. Naspers is the majority owner of Prosus. We are committed to investing in entrepreneurs and in technologies that improve people’s lives. From India to Brazil to South Africa to Russia – well over a billion people around the world benefit from Naspers-backed businesses. Billions more are within our reach and we’re keen to help them too. We continue to grow and address big societal needs and, in turn, create greater value over time. We operate or partner with several leading internet businesses across Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, the Americas and Asia in sectors that include online classifieds, food delivery, payments and fintech, etail, social and internet platforms, education and health. Every day hundreds of millions of people use the products and services of companies that Naspers has invested in, acquired or built, including
 Similarly, hundreds of millions of people have made the platforms of our listed associates part of their daily lives:
 They actively search for new opportunities to partner with exceptional entrepreneurs who are using technology to address big societal needs. In South Africa, Naspers is one of the foremost investors in the technology sector and is committed to building its local internet and ecommerce companies. These include Takealot, Mr D Food (Mr D), Superbalist, OLX, AutoTrader, Property24 and PayU, in addition to Media24, South Africa’s leading print and digital media business. WHO ARE NASPARSNaspers are a global consumer internet group and one of the largest technology investors in the world. They are committed to investing in entrepreneurs and technologies that improve people’s daily lives They purpose from India to Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Brazil – well over a billion people around the world use some service they provide. Billions more are within their reac Group overview Through Prosus, they focus on building global consumer internet businesses. They have investments in classifieds, food delivery, payments and fintech, education, health and etail, as well as ventures, and social and internet platforms. They also have a leading media business, Media24, and a leading etail business, Takealot, in South Africa. SALES PER BUSINESS BUSINESS SUMMARYCEO: Bob van Dijk(47) has been a CEO since April 2014. Bob has $15 977 000 compensation and 5.8 years average management tenure. Mr. Bob Van Dijk serves as an independent director at Booking holding inc. since June 04, 2020. He has been chief executive officer of Naspers Limited since April 2014. He has experience in the technology sector and has been active in the field of E-commerce for 11 years.
Naspers Limited is one of the world's leading Internet service providers. Net sales (excluding discontinued operations) by activity break down as follows: - Management of social platforms and digital content (77.6%): via Tencent and Mail.ru; - Operation of online sales sites (21.1%): via Classifieds, Etail, Payments, DeliveryHero, MakeMyTrip and Fintech. The remaining sales (1.3%) relates to print publishing activity (newspapers, magazines, books, etc.). Net sales break down geographically as follows: South Africa (17.3%), Africa (0.4%), Europe (54.7%), Latin America (15.6%), Asia (8.5%) and other (3.5%) Base of fundamental criteria, Naspers Limited has a stablished themselves as a powerhouse internet consumer company in the world, well diversified business model is the strength of any good company. Monopoly is important to any solid company to grow and perform stable earning power. Revenue streaming is growing linear and stable 12% YoY. Overall, the company health is positive, although the company is among great performers.   I am going to show you how to do stock price forecasting in a quick and reliable and significantly accurate way, so today we are going to dive into PayPal Inc stock. I am going to take five years of data[2016-2020] and show you how we are going forecast it so without further delay let us jump on it. Log residual will help us navigate where PayPal stock price will continue its fluctuations over the next months if only if the systematic risk is stable. Anything can happen in the stock market in near future, Mr. Market mood is never predicable, however our job is to read market and Mr. Market is there to serve us, and not become its slave  FISRTS STEP Install and load those packages and pull data from Yahoo Finance. Identify the class you are working with, what type of data are we pulling? The class will tell us quickly that it is XTS ~zoo. When we have XTS data set that we are working with XTS object, that means we have the data column and index filed which contain dates in it. It is a little bit different than data frame data set. For this analysis purpose I am going only to analyze adjusted prices. You are free to work with (OHLC), open, high, low, and close or even only with volume.   class(PYPL_adjsusted) ## [1] "xts" "zoo" NEXT STEP Next step is to look at ACF an PACF. ACF is an (complete) auto-correlation function which gives us values of auto-correlation of any series with its lagged values. We plot these values along with the confidence band and tada! We have an ACF plot. In simple terms, it describes how well the present value of the series is related with its past values. A time series can have components like trend, seasonality, cyclic and residual. ACF considers all these components while finding correlations hence it’s a ‘complete auto-correlation plot’. PACF is a partial auto-correlation function. Basically, instead of finding correlations of present with lags like ACF, it finds correlation of the residuals (which remains after removing the effects which are already explained by the earlier lag(s)) with the next lag value hence ‘partial’ and not ‘complete’ as we remove already found variations before we find the next correlation. So, if there is any hidden information in the residual which can be modeled by the next lag, we might get a good correlation and we will keep that next lag as a feature while modeling. Remember while modeling we do not want to keep too many features which are correlated as that can create multicollinearity issues. Hence we need to retain only the relevant features.            ACCURACY MODELS  References
Hlavac, Marek. 2018. stargazer: Well-Formatted Regression and Summary Statistics Tables (version 5.2.2). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=stargazer. Hyndman, Rob, George Athanasopoulos, Christoph Bergmeir, Gabriel Caceres, Leanne Chhay, Mitchell O’Hara-Wild, Fotios Petropoulos, Slava Razbash, Earo Wang, and Farah Yasmeen. 2020. forecast: Forecasting Functions for Time Series and Linear Models (version 8.12). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=forecast. Kleiber, Christian, and Achim Zeileis. 2020. AER: Applied Econometrics with R (version 1.2-9). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=AER. Pfaff, Bernhard. 2016. urca: Unit Root and Cointegration Tests for Time Series Data (version 1.3-0). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=urca. Ryan, Jeffrey A., and Joshua M. Ulrich. 2020. quantmod: Quantitative Financial Modelling Framework (version 0.4.17). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=quantmod. Wickham, Hadley, and Jennifer Bryan. 2019. readxl: Read Excel Files (version 1.3.1). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=readxl. Wickham, Hadley, and Dana Seidel. 2020. scales: Scale Functions for Visualization (version 1.1.1). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=scales. Zeileis, Achim. 2019. dynlm: Dynamic Linear Regression (version 0.3-6). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=dynlm. WRITTEN BY TELA ADVISOR JANUARY 11, 2021  Visa Inc. (Visa) is a payments technology company that connects consumers, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, strategic partners and government entities to electronic payments. The Company operates through payment services segment. The Company enables global commerce through the transfer of value and information among the participants. The Company's transaction processing network facilitates authorization, clearing and settlement of payment transactions and enables to provide its financial institution and merchant clients a range of products, platforms and value-added services. The Company is a retail electronic payment network based on payments volume, number of transactions and number of cards in circulation. Its products/services include core products, processing infrastructure, transaction processing services, digital products, merchant products, and risk products and payment security initiatives visa vs mastercard18 MONTHS SNAPSHOT PERFORMANCE  Mastercard Incorporated is a technology company that connects consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses across the world, enabling them to use electronic forms of payment. The Company allows user to make payments by creating a range of payment solutions and services using its brands, which include MasterCard, Maestro and Cirrus. The Company provides a range of products and solutions that support payment products, which customers can offer to their cardholders. The Company's services facilitate transactions on its core network among account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, governments and other organizations in markets globally. The Company's products include consumer credit, consumer debit, prepaid and commercial. It also provides integrated offerings such as cyber and intelligence products, information and analytics services, consulting, loyalty and reward programs and processing solutions.                Stock data analysis and data visualization with Quantmod, Magrittr in R |
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